| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
No |
10,000 |
0.816 |
$8,155.00 |
$3,155.00 |
+63.1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
3,331 |
0.961 |
$3,199.07 |
$62.20 |
+2.0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.184 |
$1,845.02 |
$-3,155.00 |
-63.1% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? |
No |
1,945 |
0.922 |
$1,794.45 |
$-11.10 |
-0.6% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
62,145 |
0.022 |
$1,367.20 |
$508.04 |
+59.1% |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? |
No |
1,231 |
0.815 |
$1,002.95 |
$7.60 |
+0.8% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
No |
933 |
0.958 |
$892.98 |
$22.75 |
+2.6% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
795 |
0.988 |
$785.11 |
$9.24 |
+1.2% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
No |
280 |
0.860 |
$240.51 |
$2.80 |
+1.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
271 |
0.695 |
$188.46 |
$-12.43 |
-6.2% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
No |
176 |
0.963 |
$169.19 |
$4.14 |
+2.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.835 |
$167.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.6% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
235 |
0.670 |
$157.44 |
$2.05 |
+1.3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.905 |
$90.50 |
$0.50 |
+0.6% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.225 |
$90.00 |
$-4.00 |
-4.3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.875 |
$87.50 |
$1.50 |
+1.7% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? |
Yes |
983 |
0.085 |
$83.55 |
$-34.61 |
-29.3% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
3,200 |
0.025 |
$78.40 |
$-233.76 |
-74.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
200 |
0.375 |
$75.00 |
$-6.60 |
-8.1% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? |
Yes |
140 |
0.300 |
$42.00 |
$-63.10 |
-60.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.160 |
$32.00 |
$-22.00 |
-40.7% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? |
No |
40 |
0.725 |
$29.00 |
$-3.00 |
-9.4% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? |
No |
34 |
0.805 |
$27.57 |
$0.17 |
+0.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
105 |
0.255 |
$26.78 |
$-18.23 |
-40.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.125 |
$25.00 |
$-9.00 |
-26.5% |