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Trader

0xf114b578bc08e5641d4cbfbb52e6e97b038d6ecc
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$760
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+24.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
65%
389W / 209L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
65%
389W / 211L
Trades (30d)
600
across 153 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$5.00
avg win $15 · loss $6
Profit Factor
2.75
$1,194 won / $433 lost
Reward / Risk
2.41
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$110
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,098 · all-time $713,536

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 60.6% 1,295W/842L 609 $28,195
🌤 Weather 46.7% 71W/81L 52 $1,499
₿ Crypto 7 $238
🏛 Politics 4 $169
🎬 Culture 2 $168
🤖 Tech 2 $105
💵 Economy 2 $78
🔬 Science 1 $14

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

17 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 110 0.964 $106.04 $-0.19 -0.2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100 0.994 $99.35 $49.35 +98.7%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 100 0.963 $96.30 $0.28 +0.3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 30 0.981 $29.41 $0.01 +0.1%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 20 0.977 $19.53 $0.41 +2.1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 15 0.980 $14.70 $0.00 +0.0%
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 15 0.981 $14.51 $0.08 +0.6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 15 0.961 $14.41 $-0.05 -0.4%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No 10 0.932 $9.32 $0.32 +3.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? Yes 500 0.013 $6.25 $1.25 +25.0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August? Yes 450 0.011 $4.72 $-0.22 -4.5%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No 5 0.945 $4.72 $0.03 +0.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? Yes 574 0.007 $4.31 $-0.68 -13.7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 3-9? No 3 0.983 $3.01 $0.04 +1.2%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 100 0.006 $0.65 $-49.35 -98.7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August? Yes 52 0.006 $0.34 $0.03 +8.3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 5? Yes 34 0.001 $0.02 $-2.98 -99.4%