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Trader leaderboard/elmcap2

elmcap2

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
Scoped to Crypto — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$168
Crypto · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$646
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
100%
121W / 0L · 214 open
Win Return (30d)
85%
285W / 50L
Trades (30d)
335
across 23 markets · ~15 per market
EV / position
+$83.86
avg win $84
Profit Factor
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,168,258 · all-time $288,727,699

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 93.6% 4,294W/295L 191 $18,804,794
🏛 Politics 100.0% 759W/0L 36 $5,957,862
💵 Economy 100.0% 611W/0L 25 $5,851,345
₿ Crypto 100.0% 17W/0L 19 $39,780
🤖 Tech 100.0% 4W/0L 8 $7,418
🎬 Culture 100.0% 11W/0L 8 $146,638
⚽ Sports 79.0% 109W/29L 7 $85,034
🔬 Science 1 $7,254

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

77 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 6,500,000 0.790 $5,138,250.00 $1,888,250.00 +58.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6,500,000 0.209 $1,361,750.00 $-1,888,250.00 -58.1%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 201,047 0.935 $187,978.99 $4,103.17 +2.2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 190,668 0.963 $183,518.31 $15,470.83 +9.2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 124,792 0.963 $120,112.08 $9,015.96 +8.1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 112,531 0.955 $107,467.37 $4,974.78 +4.9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 101,898 0.973 $99,146.66 $2,537.77 +2.6%
Trump out as President by August 31? No 63,618 0.993 $63,141.14 $224.25 +0.4%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 64,129 0.915 $58,677.79 $-653.22 -1.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 42,125 0.955 $40,228.97 $2,045.70 +5.4%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 37,374 0.962 $35,954.10 $1,105.42 +3.2%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 32,539 0.978 $31,807.11 $1,196.73 +3.9%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 33,094 0.885 $29,287.95 $1,461.35 +5.3%
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? No 27,685 0.990 $27,394.72 $306.95 +1.1%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 25,891 0.977 $25,282.42 $2,175.32 +9.4%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 22,499 0.955 $21,486.36 $241.75 +1.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 20,000 1.000 $19,990.00 $85.12 +0.4%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 11,767 0.945 $11,120.01 $650.29 +6.2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 10,632 0.956 $10,164.53 $165.51 +1.7%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 11,062 0.915 $10,122.17 $417.55 +4.3%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 8,984 0.994 $8,929.82 $183.56 +2.1%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 14,959 0.535 $8,002.89 $116.06 +1.5%
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 8,376 0.955 $7,994.65 $299.48 +3.9%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 7,500 0.987 $7,398.73 $248.80 +3.5%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 5,795 0.973 $5,636.07 $-28.80 -0.5%