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Trader leaderboard/elmcap2

elmcap2

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
PnL (30d)
+$33,358
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$10,147
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
94%
4,294W / 295L · 1,623 open
Win Return (30d)
92%
5,005W / 425L · 782 open
Trades (30d)
6,212
across 191 markets · ~33 per market
EV / position
+$260.61
avg win $633 · loss $3,034
Profit Factor
1.85
$72,806 won / $39,448 lost
Reward / Risk
0.21
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,413
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $1,150,633 · all-time $288,710,074

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 93.6% 4,294W/295L 191 $18,804,794
🏛 Politics 100.0% 879W/0L 37 $6,577,622
💵 Economy 100.0% 730W/0L 25 $6,467,233
₿ Crypto 100.0% 17W/0L 19 $40,579
🎬 Culture 100.0% 11W/0L 9 $151,293
🤖 Tech 100.0% 4W/0L 8 $7,429
⚽ Sports 79.0% 109W/29L 7 $85,034
🔬 Science 1 $7,254

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

76 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 6,500,000 0.790 $5,138,250.00 $1,888,250.00 +58.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6,500,000 0.209 $1,361,750.00 $-1,888,250.00 -58.1%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 201,047 0.935 $187,978.99 $4,103.17 +2.2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 190,668 0.963 $183,518.31 $15,470.83 +9.2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 124,792 0.964 $120,236.87 $9,140.75 +8.2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 112,531 0.955 $107,467.37 $4,974.78 +4.9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 101,898 0.972 $99,044.76 $2,435.87 +2.5%
Trump out as President by August 31? No 63,618 0.993 $63,141.14 $224.25 +0.4%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 64,129 0.915 $58,677.79 $-653.22 -1.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 42,125 0.955 $40,228.97 $2,045.70 +5.4%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 37,374 0.963 $35,972.78 $1,124.11 +3.2%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 32,539 0.978 $31,807.11 $1,196.73 +3.9%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 33,094 0.885 $29,287.95 $1,461.35 +5.3%
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? No 27,685 0.990 $27,394.72 $306.95 +1.1%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 25,891 0.977 $25,282.42 $2,175.32 +9.4%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 16,113 0.978 $15,758.31 $513.24 +3.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 15,052 1.000 $15,044.47 $82.58 +0.6%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 11,767 0.945 $11,120.01 $650.29 +6.2%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 10,632 0.956 $10,164.53 $165.51 +1.7%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 11,062 0.915 $10,122.17 $417.55 +4.3%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 13,959 0.675 $9,422.11 $2,035.27 +27.6%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 8,984 0.994 $8,929.82 $183.56 +2.1%
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 8,376 0.955 $7,994.65 $299.48 +3.9%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 7,500 0.987 $7,402.48 $252.55 +3.5%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 5,795 0.976 $5,656.36 $-8.51 -0.2%