PnL (30d)

−$101

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$223

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

28%

3,378W / 8,811L · 3,233 open

Win Return (30d)

39%

5,999W / 9,417L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

15,422

across 52 markets · ~297 per market

EV / position

−$3.49

avg win $121 · loss $91

Profit Factor

0.93

$1,448 won / $1,549 lost

Reward / Risk

1.32

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$688

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	43.1% 9,501W/12,523L	98	$50,940
🏛 Politics	27.3% 3,327W/8,841L	52	$29,711
🎬 Culture	27.3% 3,327W/8,841L	52	$29,711

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

35 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	419	0.973	$407.92	$94.31	+30.1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	538	0.415	$223.11	$44.00	+24.6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	190	1.000	$189.54	$2.68	+1.4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	172	0.993	$170.34	$0.51	+0.3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	626	0.245	$153.34	$8.57	+5.9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	156	0.975	$151.73	$13.80	+10.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	164	0.845	$138.46	$-0.66	-0.5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	114	0.895	$101.63	$2.62	+2.6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	104	0.815	$85.05	$-2.81	-3.2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	90	0.921	$82.49	$-1.33	-1.6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	79	0.981	$77.61	$0.28	+0.4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	94	0.815	$76.95	$-4.59	-5.6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	71	0.935	$66.46	$2.16	+3.4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	No	67	0.999	$66.44	$3.14	+5.0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	31	0.979	$29.87	$-0.27	-0.9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	28	0.973	$26.93	$0.36	+1.3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	92	0.179	$16.56	$1.67	+11.2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	30	0.540	$16.06	$-1.34	-7.7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	21	0.730	$15.44	$0.55	+3.7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	13	0.994	$13.23	$0.18	+1.4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	439	0.027	$11.86	$-1.27	-9.7%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	9	0.998	$8.93	$0.03	+0.4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	3	0.981	$2.86	$0.04	+1.4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	118	0.022	$2.66	$-2.21	-45.4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	1,607	0.002	$2.41	$-4.33	-64.2%