PnL (30d)

−$394

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$36

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-11.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

52%

81W / 75L · 87 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

133W / 110L

Trades (30d)

243

across 20 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

−$35.82

avg win $32 · loss $117

Profit Factor

0.32

$190 won / $584 lost

Reward / Risk

0.27

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$111

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	47.7% 2,285W/2,507L	334	$131,842
⚽ Sports	76.9% 30W/9L	17	$842
🏛 Politics	91.0% 61W/6L	12	$3,521
🎬 Culture	92.2% 71W/6L	8	$2,427
🌤 Weather	13.2% 15W/99L	5	$732
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$15
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$15

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

71 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	1,132	0.235	$265.97	$5.66	+2.2%
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	580	0.445	$258.10	$8.70	+3.5%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	390	0.560	$218.32	$-7.18	-3.2%
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?	Yes	168	0.935	$156.87	$4.19	+2.7%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	300	0.440	$131.92	$-10.75	-7.5%
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	324	0.370	$120.02	$-2.88	-2.3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	170	0.650	$110.50	$34.00	+44.4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	848	0.120	$101.73	$-6.68	-6.2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,091	0.080	$87.30	$-67.46	-43.6%
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?	Yes	296	0.280	$82.91	$28.32	+51.9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	300	0.260	$77.94	$-3.00	-3.7%
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	1,249	0.045	$56.22	$-2.48	-4.2%
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	Yes	666	0.068	$45.28	$-64.95	-58.9%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	1,242	0.035	$42.86	$-1.55	-3.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?	Yes	225	0.170	$38.25	$-6.30	-14.1%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	292	0.115	$33.61	$-2.77	-7.6%
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	486	0.058	$27.96	$11.22	+67.0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	869	0.030	$26.07	$12.53	+92.6%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	No	121	0.205	$24.81	$-10.19	-29.1%
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	1,530	0.016	$24.48	$-100.70	-80.4%
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	320	0.065	$20.79	$-19.40	-48.3%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	611	0.034	$20.76	$-18.63	-47.3%
Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	716	0.028	$20.04	$-17.81	-47.1%
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	240	0.083	$19.95	$16.61	+498.7%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	637	0.030	$19.44	$3.64	+23.0%