Trader
0xe1e5255c0a89dc14e8bbfd62f26666d86e7b35a4
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$30
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-11.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
24%
23W / 71L · 159 open
Win Return (30d)
26%
45W / 130L · 78 open
Trades (30d)
253
across 40 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
−$2.17
avg win $1 · loss $3
Profit Factor
0.05
$2 won / $32 lost
Reward / Risk
0.33
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$21
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $463 · all-time $32,337
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
8 |
0.963 |
$8.14 |
$-0.06 |
-0.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
2 |
0.785 |
$1.45 |
$0.45 |
+45.4% |
| Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
1 |
0.976 |
$1.30 |
$0.30 |
+30.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
6 |
0.215 |
$1.21 |
$-3.92 |
-76.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1 |
0.835 |
$1.07 |
$0.07 |
+7.0% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
26 |
0.037 |
$0.99 |
$-0.01 |
-1.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
1 |
0.215 |
$0.31 |
$-0.69 |
-69.3% |