| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,300 |
0.915 |
$1,189.11 |
$30.32 |
+2.6% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,748 |
0.249 |
$1,184.62 |
$-438.68 |
-27.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
3,541 |
0.325 |
$1,150.88 |
$-374.76 |
-24.6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? |
Yes |
295 |
0.720 |
$212.39 |
$40.65 |
+23.7% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
272 |
0.745 |
$202.72 |
$12.68 |
+6.7% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,945 |
0.025 |
$198.62 |
$-10.64 |
-5.1% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
257 |
0.675 |
$173.68 |
$26.05 |
+17.6% |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? |
Yes |
256 |
0.660 |
$168.83 |
$4.12 |
+2.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
360 |
0.380 |
$136.80 |
$-67.80 |
-33.1% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.938 |
$131.25 |
$1.01 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
2,535 |
0.046 |
$117.86 |
$-17.67 |
-13.0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
126 |
0.925 |
$116.55 |
$8.95 |
+8.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
656 |
0.165 |
$108.28 |
$-1.65 |
-1.5% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
159 |
0.605 |
$96.03 |
$-7.41 |
-7.2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.935 |
$93.50 |
$2.50 |
+2.7% |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
842 |
0.110 |
$92.63 |
$-44.21 |
-32.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
200 |
0.455 |
$91.00 |
$3.00 |
+3.4% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
488 |
0.170 |
$82.88 |
$-29.02 |
-25.9% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.815 |
$81.49 |
$4.49 |
+5.8% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.185 |
$64.75 |
$-35.25 |
-35.2% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
No |
110 |
0.570 |
$62.68 |
$7.99 |
+14.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.615 |
$61.50 |
$9.50 |
+18.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
155 |
0.385 |
$59.63 |
$5.62 |
+10.4% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
Yes |
164 |
0.335 |
$54.87 |
$4.09 |
+8.1% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.725 |
$50.72 |
$8.15 |
+19.2% |