| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,748 |
0.254 |
$1,205.98 |
$-417.31 |
-25.7% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,300 |
0.915 |
$1,189.11 |
$30.32 |
+2.6% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
3,541 |
0.325 |
$1,150.88 |
$-374.76 |
-24.6% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
272 |
0.790 |
$214.96 |
$24.92 |
+13.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? |
Yes |
295 |
0.720 |
$212.39 |
$40.65 |
+23.7% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,945 |
0.025 |
$194.64 |
$-14.61 |
-7.0% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
257 |
0.665 |
$171.11 |
$23.48 |
+15.9% |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? |
Yes |
256 |
0.650 |
$166.28 |
$1.56 |
+0.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
360 |
0.415 |
$149.40 |
$-55.20 |
-27.0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.938 |
$131.25 |
$1.01 |
+0.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
126 |
0.925 |
$116.55 |
$8.95 |
+8.3% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
2,535 |
0.045 |
$115.33 |
$-20.21 |
-14.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
656 |
0.165 |
$108.28 |
$-1.65 |
-1.5% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
159 |
0.600 |
$95.23 |
$-8.21 |
-7.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.935 |
$93.50 |
$2.50 |
+2.7% |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
842 |
0.110 |
$92.63 |
$-44.21 |
-32.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
200 |
0.455 |
$91.00 |
$3.00 |
+3.4% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
488 |
0.170 |
$82.88 |
$-29.02 |
-25.9% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.815 |
$81.49 |
$4.49 |
+5.8% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.195 |
$68.25 |
$-31.75 |
-31.7% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
No |
110 |
0.575 |
$63.24 |
$8.55 |
+15.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.615 |
$61.50 |
$9.50 |
+18.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
155 |
0.390 |
$60.41 |
$6.39 |
+11.8% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
Yes |
164 |
0.335 |
$54.87 |
$4.09 |
+8.1% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.724 |
$50.65 |
$8.09 |
+19.0% |