| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,748 |
0.273 |
$1,296.20 |
$-327.10 |
-20.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
3,541 |
0.350 |
$1,239.41 |
$-286.23 |
-18.8% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,300 |
0.915 |
$1,189.11 |
$30.32 |
+2.6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? |
Yes |
295 |
0.725 |
$213.87 |
$42.12 |
+24.5% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
No |
276 |
0.750 |
$206.67 |
$14.18 |
+7.4% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
7,945 |
0.024 |
$190.67 |
$-18.58 |
-8.9% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
257 |
0.675 |
$173.68 |
$26.05 |
+17.6% |
| Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? |
Yes |
256 |
0.655 |
$167.55 |
$2.84 |
+1.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
360 |
0.365 |
$131.40 |
$-73.20 |
-35.8% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
140 |
0.938 |
$131.25 |
$1.01 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
2,535 |
0.046 |
$116.59 |
$-18.94 |
-14.0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
126 |
0.925 |
$116.55 |
$8.95 |
+8.3% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
159 |
0.605 |
$96.03 |
$-7.41 |
-7.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
656 |
0.145 |
$95.16 |
$-14.78 |
-13.4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.935 |
$93.50 |
$2.50 |
+2.7% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
200 |
0.455 |
$91.00 |
$3.00 |
+3.4% |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
842 |
0.105 |
$88.42 |
$-48.42 |
-35.4% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.815 |
$81.49 |
$4.49 |
+5.8% |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
488 |
0.160 |
$78.01 |
$-33.89 |
-30.3% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.185 |
$64.75 |
$-35.25 |
-35.2% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
No |
110 |
0.570 |
$62.68 |
$7.99 |
+14.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.615 |
$61.50 |
$9.50 |
+18.3% |
| Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? |
Yes |
164 |
0.355 |
$58.15 |
$7.37 |
+14.5% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
155 |
0.355 |
$54.99 |
$0.97 |
+1.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
70 |
0.762 |
$53.38 |
$10.81 |
+25.4% |