PnL (30d)

+$7

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

95%

119W / 6L · 5 open

Win Return (30d)

95%

124W / 6L

Trades (30d)

130

across 34 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.21

avg win $3 · loss $37

Profit Factor

1.09

$80 won / $73 lost

Reward / Risk

0.07

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	89.7% 693W/80L	199	$24,272
🌤 Weather	100.0% 59W/0L	20	$1,426
🏛 Politics	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,481
🎬 Culture	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,481

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	177	0.915	$162.33	$8.60	+5.6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	171	0.930	$159.01	$1.71	+1.1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	160	0.975	$156.31	$7.99	+5.4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	157	0.885	$139.36	$-2.38	-1.7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	39	1.000	$38.49	$1.36	+3.7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 5?	No	43	0.872	$37.57	$-3.36	-8.2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	40	0.815	$32.43	$-1.00	-3.0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?	No	29	0.855	$24.78	$-2.07	-7.7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	13	0.735	$9.80	$-1.00	-9.3%