PnL (30d)

−$66

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$38

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

84%

96W / 18L · 18 open

Win Return (30d)

86%

113W / 19L

Trades (30d)

132

across 31 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$2.53

avg win $15 · loss $62

Profit Factor

0.82

$306 won / $372 lost

Reward / Risk

0.25

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$62

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	89.7% 693W/80L	199	$24,272
🌤 Weather	100.0% 59W/0L	20	$1,426
🏛 Politics	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,481
🎬 Culture	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,481

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	177	0.915	$162.33	$8.60	+5.6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	171	0.935	$159.87	$2.56	+1.6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	160	0.983	$157.59	$9.27	+6.3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	157	0.895	$140.94	$-0.81	-0.6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 5?	No	43	0.911	$39.28	$-1.66	-4.1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	39	0.992	$38.18	$1.05	+2.8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	40	0.815	$32.43	$-1.00	-3.0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 5?	No	29	0.915	$26.52	$-0.43	-1.6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 5?	No	23	0.975	$22.41	$0.34	+1.6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	13	0.745	$9.93	$-0.87	-8.0%