PnL (30d)

−$352

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$31

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

90%

693W / 80L · 24 open

Win Return (30d)

89%

710W / 87L

Trades (30d)

797

across 194 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$1.89

avg win $5 · loss $59

Profit Factor

0.71

$881 won / $1,233 lost

Reward / Risk

0.09

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$163

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	89.7% 693W/80L	194	$23,989
🌤 Weather	95.8% 68W/3L	20	$1,523
🏛 Politics	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,346
🎬 Culture	63.0% 17W/10L	10	$2,346

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	209	0.981	$204.96	$11.66	+6.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	177	0.925	$164.10	$10.37	+6.7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	171	0.935	$159.87	$2.56	+1.6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	152	0.895	$135.79	$-0.78	-0.6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 5?	No	43	0.902	$38.89	$-2.05	-5.0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	40	0.815	$32.43	$-1.00	-3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5?	No	28	0.860	$23.68	$-1.26	-5.0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 5?	No	23	0.955	$21.95	$-0.12	-0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5?	No	13	0.960	$12.51	$0.13	+1.1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	13	0.755	$10.06	$-0.73	-6.8%