| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
281 |
0.845 |
$237.05 |
$19.97 |
+9.2% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
25,124 |
0.009 |
$213.56 |
$-12.54 |
-5.5% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
133 |
0.695 |
$92.13 |
$3.65 |
+4.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
122 |
0.630 |
$77.10 |
$5.16 |
+7.2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? |
Yes |
449 |
0.115 |
$51.66 |
$-6.59 |
-11.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
94 |
0.515 |
$48.33 |
$-5.09 |
-9.5% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
343 |
0.117 |
$39.96 |
$-2.08 |
-4.9% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? |
No |
26 |
0.945 |
$24.13 |
$0.13 |
+0.5% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
24 |
1.000 |
$24.04 |
$0.04 |
+0.1% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
32 |
0.600 |
$18.91 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
Yes |
156 |
0.115 |
$17.97 |
$-13.41 |
-42.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
14 |
0.905 |
$12.95 |
$0.93 |
+7.7% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
Yes |
116 |
0.110 |
$12.75 |
$1.73 |
+15.7% |
| Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
13 |
0.925 |
$12.07 |
$0.07 |
+0.5% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
Yes |
16 |
0.770 |
$12.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 3-9? |
Yes |
790 |
0.015 |
$11.45 |
$-5.97 |
-34.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
11 |
0.715 |
$8.14 |
$1.02 |
+14.4% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.930 |
$8.14 |
$0.50 |
+6.6% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
12 |
0.625 |
$7.31 |
$-0.06 |
-0.8% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? |
Yes |
231 |
0.026 |
$6.00 |
$-1.41 |
-19.1% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
6 |
0.998 |
$5.63 |
$0.21 |
+3.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
Yes |
111 |
0.045 |
$4.98 |
$-9.13 |
-64.7% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
60 |
0.080 |
$4.80 |
$-1.60 |
-25.0% |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? |
Yes |
10 |
0.380 |
$3.72 |
$-0.44 |
-10.7% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
4 |
0.940 |
$3.31 |
$1.02 |
+44.6% |