Arbgod-himself
0xdabd4df1cc941e552b44f0c2e5f929b4851e6ada
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$33
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-31.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
10%
1W / 9L
Win Return (30d)
10%
1W / 9L
Trades (30d)
10
across 4 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$8.37
avg win $2 · loss $12
Profit Factor
0.05
$2 won / $35 lost
Reward / Risk
0.14
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$4
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $858 · all-time $2,091,549
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? |
No |
2,348 |
0.795 |
$1,866.46 |
$522.72 |
+38.9% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? |
No |
318 |
0.913 |
$289.99 |
$-14.49 |
-4.8% |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? |
No |
141 |
0.865 |
$121.95 |
$14.63 |
+13.6% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group |
Gen.G |
113 |
1.000 |
$112.90 |
$58.68 |
+108.2% |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? |
No |
101 |
0.885 |
$89.39 |
$-0.50 |
-0.6% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
Yes |
155 |
0.165 |
$25.65 |
$-34.04 |
-57.0% |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5? |
Down |
4 |
0.790 |
$3.16 |
$0.76 |
+31.7% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? |
Up |
2 |
0.740 |
$1.48 |
$0.06 |
+4.2% |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
13 |
0.055 |
$0.71 |
$-0.36 |
-33.7% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group |
Hanwha Life Esports |
3 |
0.001 |
$0.00 |
$-1.44 |
-99.9% |