| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
100,000 |
0.988 |
$98,750.00 |
$-250.00 |
-0.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
61,477 |
0.986 |
$60,585.35 |
$300.87 |
+0.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
57,077 |
0.976 |
$55,678.77 |
$871.05 |
+1.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
50,000 |
0.985 |
$49,224.91 |
$-175.00 |
-0.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
38,030 |
0.962 |
$36,566.27 |
$854.39 |
+2.4% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
28,323 |
0.987 |
$27,940.60 |
$214.06 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
25,559 |
1.000 |
$25,545.90 |
$80.61 |
+0.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
20,000 |
0.973 |
$19,459.95 |
$-60.00 |
-0.3% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
30,000 |
0.600 |
$17,999.99 |
$-8,299.46 |
-31.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
18,769 |
0.825 |
$15,484.12 |
$-1,033.01 |
-6.3% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
10,000 |
1.000 |
$9,995.00 |
$265.00 |
+2.7% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
10,000 |
0.845 |
$8,449.97 |
$1,150.00 |
+15.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
8,169 |
0.998 |
$8,148.59 |
$303.41 |
+3.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
8,000 |
0.999 |
$7,991.99 |
$264.00 |
+3.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
7,184 |
0.945 |
$6,789.30 |
$179.61 |
+2.7% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.745 |
$5,960.00 |
$440.00 |
+8.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.935 |
$4,675.00 |
$-25.00 |
-0.5% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.213 |
$2,134.99 |
$-355.00 |
-14.3% |