| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
100,000 |
0.991 |
$99,050.00 |
$50.00 |
+0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
61,477 |
0.986 |
$60,585.35 |
$300.87 |
+0.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
57,077 |
0.976 |
$55,678.77 |
$871.05 |
+1.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
50,000 |
0.983 |
$49,124.91 |
$-275.00 |
-0.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
38,030 |
0.963 |
$36,623.31 |
$911.44 |
+2.6% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
28,323 |
0.987 |
$27,940.60 |
$214.06 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
25,559 |
1.000 |
$25,545.90 |
$80.61 |
+0.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
20,000 |
0.968 |
$19,349.95 |
$-170.00 |
-0.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
30,000 |
0.625 |
$18,749.99 |
$-7,549.46 |
-28.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
18,769 |
0.845 |
$15,859.50 |
$-657.63 |
-4.0% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.992 |
$9,915.00 |
$185.00 |
+1.9% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
10,000 |
0.850 |
$8,499.97 |
$1,200.00 |
+16.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
8,000 |
0.999 |
$7,991.99 |
$264.00 |
+3.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
7,184 |
0.945 |
$6,789.30 |
$179.61 |
+2.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
6,368 |
0.999 |
$6,358.75 |
$308.86 |
+5.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.700 |
$5,600.00 |
$80.00 |
+1.4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.935 |
$4,675.00 |
$-25.00 |
-0.5% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.213 |
$2,134.99 |
$-355.00 |
-14.3% |