| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
100,000 |
0.991 |
$99,050.00 |
$50.00 |
+0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
61,477 |
0.985 |
$60,523.87 |
$239.39 |
+0.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
57,077 |
0.976 |
$55,707.31 |
$899.59 |
+1.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
50,000 |
0.984 |
$49,174.91 |
$-225.00 |
-0.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
38,030 |
0.959 |
$36,471.19 |
$759.32 |
+2.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
28,323 |
0.987 |
$27,954.76 |
$228.23 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
25,559 |
1.000 |
$25,545.90 |
$80.61 |
+0.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
20,000 |
0.968 |
$19,359.95 |
$-160.00 |
-0.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
30,000 |
0.625 |
$18,749.99 |
$-7,549.46 |
-28.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
18,769 |
0.835 |
$15,671.81 |
$-845.32 |
-5.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.998 |
$9,975.00 |
$245.00 |
+2.5% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
10,000 |
0.855 |
$8,549.97 |
$1,250.00 |
+17.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
8,000 |
0.999 |
$7,987.99 |
$260.00 |
+3.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
7,184 |
0.940 |
$6,753.37 |
$143.69 |
+2.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
6,368 |
0.999 |
$6,358.75 |
$308.86 |
+5.1% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
8,000 |
0.710 |
$5,680.00 |
$160.00 |
+2.9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.935 |
$4,675.00 |
$-25.00 |
-0.5% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.213 |
$2,134.99 |
$-355.00 |
-14.3% |