| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
263 |
0.920 |
$241.76 |
$-0.65 |
-0.3% |
| LA28 Olympics run as scheduled? |
Yes |
300 |
0.660 |
$198.15 |
$-74.88 |
-27.4% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
903 |
0.195 |
$176.16 |
$-141.12 |
-44.5% |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? |
No |
178 |
0.936 |
$166.78 |
$6.41 |
+4.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? |
Yes |
249 |
0.525 |
$130.49 |
$34.01 |
+35.2% |
| Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
104 |
0.952 |
$98.59 |
$2.28 |
+2.4% |
| Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event? |
No |
133 |
0.598 |
$79.53 |
$0.13 |
+0.2% |
| Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? |
No |
503 |
0.135 |
$67.87 |
$-39.81 |
-37.0% |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? |
Yes |
299 |
0.225 |
$67.37 |
$-7.27 |
-9.7% |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
299 |
0.220 |
$65.84 |
$0.01 |
+0.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5? |
No |
69 |
0.935 |
$64.66 |
$3.66 |
+6.0% |
| Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? |
No |
140 |
0.415 |
$58.25 |
$-5.01 |
-7.9% |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
1,250 |
0.045 |
$56.25 |
$-125.88 |
-69.1% |
| Will Rodri join Paris Saint-Germain? |
No |
55 |
0.993 |
$54.58 |
$4.44 |
+8.8% |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
299 |
0.175 |
$52.36 |
$-10.95 |
-17.3% |
| Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? |
No |
218 |
0.223 |
$48.41 |
$-5.81 |
-10.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.155 |
$46.48 |
$10.53 |
+29.3% |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? |
Yes |
258 |
0.180 |
$46.39 |
$-0.15 |
-0.3% |
| Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? |
No |
62 |
0.720 |
$44.33 |
$10.05 |
+29.3% |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
292 |
0.141 |
$41.31 |
$-18.59 |
-31.0% |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
95 |
0.430 |
$40.85 |
$-5.70 |
-12.2% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
59 |
0.685 |
$40.51 |
$2.86 |
+7.6% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
43 |
0.905 |
$38.88 |
$4.17 |
+12.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5? |
No |
118 |
0.325 |
$38.32 |
$6.64 |
+21.0% |
| Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
299 |
0.125 |
$37.39 |
$-28.80 |
-43.5% |