PnL (30d)

−$5,612

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$6

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

39%

2,092W / 3,295L · 674 open

Win Return (30d)

40%

2,405W / 3,631L · 25 open

Trades (30d)

6,061

across 445 markets · ~14 per market

EV / position

−$14.03

avg win $73 · loss $61

Profit Factor

0.65

$10,255 won / $15,867 lost

Reward / Risk

1.20

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$673

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.8% 2,092W/3,295L	445	$146,810
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/178L	21	$4,490
⚽ Sports	55.3% 26W/21L	19	$2,373
🌤 Weather	69.2% 90W/40L	12	$1,575
🎬 Culture	12.2% 18W/129L	11	$2,132
🤖 Tech	100.0% 17W/0L	3	$459
💵 Economy	—	2	$195

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

87 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	263	0.923	$242.42	$0.01	+0.0%
LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?	Yes	300	0.660	$198.15	$-74.88	-27.4%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	903	0.195	$176.16	$-141.12	-44.5%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	178	0.936	$166.78	$6.41	+4.0%
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	249	0.525	$130.49	$34.01	+35.2%
Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	104	0.952	$98.59	$2.28	+2.4%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	No	183	0.405	$74.01	$-8.35	-10.1%
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	299	0.230	$68.86	$-5.77	-7.7%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?	No	503	0.135	$67.87	$-39.81	-37.0%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?	Yes	299	0.220	$65.84	$0.01	+0.0%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	1,250	0.045	$56.25	$-125.88	-69.1%
Will Rodri join Paris Saint-Germain?	No	55	0.993	$54.58	$4.44	+8.8%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	299	0.175	$52.36	$-10.95	-17.3%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	No	218	0.223	$48.41	$-5.81	-10.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	300	0.160	$47.98	$12.03	+33.5%
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	258	0.180	$46.39	$-0.15	-0.3%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	62	0.720	$44.33	$10.05	+29.3%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	Yes	292	0.141	$41.31	$-18.59	-31.0%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	59	0.685	$40.51	$2.86	+7.6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	95	0.425	$40.38	$-6.17	-13.3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	43	0.905	$38.88	$4.17	+12.0%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	299	0.125	$37.39	$-28.80	-43.5%
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	529	0.054	$28.57	$17.64	+161.2%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?	Yes	891	0.030	$27.18	$-213.55	-88.7%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	25	0.997	$25.23	$0.76	+3.1%