| LA28 Olympics run as scheduled? |
Yes |
300 |
0.761 |
$228.30 |
$-44.73 |
-16.4% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
903 |
0.195 |
$176.16 |
$-141.12 |
-44.5% |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? |
No |
178 |
0.937 |
$166.96 |
$6.59 |
+4.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? |
Yes |
249 |
0.520 |
$129.25 |
$32.76 |
+34.0% |
| Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? |
Yes |
104 |
0.959 |
$99.26 |
$2.95 |
+3.1% |
| Will Lauri Saaskilahti Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event? |
No |
133 |
0.598 |
$79.53 |
$0.13 |
+0.2% |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? |
Yes |
299 |
0.255 |
$76.35 |
$1.71 |
+2.3% |
| Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? |
No |
503 |
0.135 |
$67.87 |
$-39.81 |
-37.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5? |
No |
142 |
0.475 |
$67.55 |
$24.95 |
+58.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5? |
No |
69 |
0.967 |
$66.87 |
$5.87 |
+9.6% |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
299 |
0.220 |
$65.84 |
$0.01 |
+0.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? |
Up |
86 |
0.755 |
$65.01 |
$-0.43 |
-0.7% |
| Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? |
No |
140 |
0.405 |
$56.85 |
$-6.42 |
-10.1% |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
1,250 |
0.045 |
$56.25 |
$-125.88 |
-69.1% |
| Will Rodri join Paris Saint-Germain? |
No |
55 |
0.993 |
$54.58 |
$4.44 |
+8.8% |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
299 |
0.175 |
$52.36 |
$-10.95 |
-17.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.165 |
$49.48 |
$13.53 |
+37.6% |
| Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? |
No |
218 |
0.223 |
$48.41 |
$-5.81 |
-10.7% |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? |
Yes |
258 |
0.180 |
$46.39 |
$-0.15 |
-0.3% |
| Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? |
No |
62 |
0.740 |
$45.56 |
$11.28 |
+32.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? |
Down |
179 |
0.245 |
$43.92 |
$5.00 |
+12.9% |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? |
Yes |
292 |
0.141 |
$41.31 |
$-18.59 |
-31.0% |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
95 |
0.430 |
$40.85 |
$-5.70 |
-12.2% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
59 |
0.685 |
$40.51 |
$2.86 |
+7.6% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
43 |
0.925 |
$39.74 |
$5.03 |
+14.5% |