PnL (30d)

+$3,519

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$208

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

76%

10,828W / 3,358L · 2,246 open

Win Return (30d)

73%

11,922W / 4,438L · 72 open

Trades (30d)

16,432

across 3,642 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$1.14

avg win $37 · loss $124

Profit Factor

1.04

$89,080 won / $85,562 lost

Reward / Risk

0.30

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$2,308

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	76.3% 10,828W/3,358L	3642	$892,803
🌤 Weather	85.6% 160W/27L	116	$5,766
⚽ Sports	57.7% 79W/58L	102	$7,502
🏛 Politics	77.0% 177W/53L	81	$80,279
💵 Economy	77.0% 184W/55L	49	$77,085
🎬 Culture	81.4% 35W/8L	41	$2,167
🤖 Tech	57.9% 11W/8L	9	$1,394
🔬 Science	—	6	$29

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	8,534	0.013	$115.21	$-151.48	-56.8%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	9,584	0.007	$71.88	$-227.62	-76.0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10,134	0.003	$25.34	$-291.36	-92.0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10,084	0.003	$25.21	$14.38	+132.8%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	15,195	0.002	$22.79	$-452.05	-95.2%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	16,135	0.001	$8.07	$-496.16	-98.4%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	12,472	0.001	$6.24	$-383.53	-98.4%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	2,377	0.003	$5.94	$-78.94	-93.0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	11,826	0.001	$5.91	$-363.64	-98.4%
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	100	0.043	$4.29	$-1.96	-31.4%
Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	15	0.250	$3.75	$3.25	+650.0%
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	76	0.032	$2.43	$-0.10	-4.0%
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Las Vegas Raiders next?	Yes	19	0.117	$2.23	$1.23	+123.3%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	613	0.004	$2.15	$2.14	+38786.4%
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	705	0.003	$1.76	$-3.75	-68.0%
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	49	0.034	$1.64	$0.66	+67.5%
Will "Petal - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	100	0.015	$1.55	$-4.70	-75.2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	613	0.003	$1.53	$1.53	+27676.3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	40	0.035	$1.40	$0.27	+24.2%
Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	31	0.041	$1.27	$-0.38	-23.1%
Will Siegfried Mureșan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	49	0.026	$1.27	$0.27	+27.4%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	38	0.033	$1.25	$0.18	+17.0%
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,498	0.001	$1.25	$-32.51	-96.3%
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,498	0.001	$1.25	$-32.51	-96.3%
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	2,498	0.001	$1.25	$-32.51	-96.3%