Log in
Trader leaderboard/predictiondiablo

predictiondiablo

0xc9db23c5d9f7b86628474bcb74539b92c3b56789
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$82
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$62
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+12.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
60%
3W / 2L · 29 open
Win Return (30d)
71%
24W / 10L
Trades (30d)
34
across 12 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
+$27.26
avg win $43 · loss $3
Profit Factor
26.27
$85 won / $3 lost
Reward / Risk
13.14
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $46,855 · all-time $1,356,986

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 37.6% 537W/891L 579 $199,800
⚽ Sports 51.7% 108W/101L 94 $53,046
🎬 Culture 60.0% 3W/2L 5 $404
💵 Economy 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $122
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $8

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

54 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Lyon win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? No 365 0.985 $359.10 $104.27 +40.9%
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 308 0.987 $303.83 $119.04 +64.4%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? No 289 0.915 $264.04 $40.54 +18.1%
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 176 0.975 $171.57 $55.11 +47.3%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? No 235 0.605 $142.04 $-3.57 -2.5%
Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? No 160 0.825 $131.94 $31.19 +31.0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? No 373 0.335 $124.98 $3.41 +2.8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 141 0.785 $110.62 $11.98 +12.1%
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 105 0.675 $70.68 $41.51 +142.3%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? O 99.5 108 0.525 $56.51 $-7.97 -12.4%
Will the Colorado Rockies have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 54 1.000 $54.32 $7.68 +16.5%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 64 0.830 $53.23 $16.03 +43.1%
Will the Los Angeles Angels have the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 45 1.000 $44.98 $7.18 +19.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat? No 39 0.895 $35.09 $8.82 +33.6%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat? Yes 43 0.785 $33.88 $9.28 +37.7%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? No 31 0.852 $26.22 $14.81 +129.9%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 265 0.095 $25.13 $-19.77 -44.0%
Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? No 24 0.984 $23.62 $7.06 +42.6%
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 83 0.285 $23.52 $9.48 +67.6%
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 14 0.958 $13.41 $2.26 +20.2%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat? No 16 0.840 $13.12 $1.35 +11.5%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat? Yes 15 0.830 $12.45 $1.05 +9.2%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027? No 11 0.922 $9.81 $1.09 +12.5%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes 90 0.090 $8.10 $-0.90 -10.0%
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 7 0.992 $6.77 $1.66 +32.5%