| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,900 |
0.785 |
$1,491.22 |
$462.87 |
+45.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.963 |
$962.50 |
$9.50 |
+1.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
900 |
0.875 |
$787.50 |
$16.50 |
+2.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,100 |
0.635 |
$698.49 |
$-55.50 |
-7.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
591 |
0.853 |
$503.58 |
$38.00 |
+8.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.785 |
$392.86 |
$211.37 |
+116.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.988 |
$296.25 |
$10.35 |
+3.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
401 |
0.525 |
$210.27 |
$61.69 |
+41.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
210 |
0.976 |
$204.95 |
$0.10 |
+0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.986 |
$197.10 |
$0.30 |
+0.2% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.375 |
$187.50 |
$-16.74 |
-8.2% |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
50,000 |
0.004 |
$175.00 |
$-167.70 |
-48.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
552 |
0.295 |
$162.89 |
$-62.52 |
-27.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
1,500 |
0.105 |
$157.49 |
$-636.80 |
-80.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.465 |
$116.18 |
$-27.88 |
-19.4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.095 |
$113.97 |
$-288.15 |
-71.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
100 |
0.968 |
$96.75 |
$2.25 |
+2.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
100 |
0.966 |
$96.60 |
$0.20 |
+0.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
100 |
0.895 |
$89.50 |
$2.50 |
+2.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
550 |
0.160 |
$88.00 |
$-54.50 |
-38.2% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
92 |
0.815 |
$75.18 |
$1.65 |
+2.2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
Yes |
545 |
0.115 |
$62.71 |
$-83.21 |
-57.0% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
12,000 |
0.004 |
$54.00 |
$-19.99 |
-27.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.100 |
$40.00 |
$-112.00 |
-73.7% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.022 |
$22.50 |
$-6.50 |
-22.4% |