| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,900 |
0.765 |
$1,453.23 |
$424.88 |
+41.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,000 |
0.959 |
$958.50 |
$5.50 |
+0.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
900 |
0.855 |
$769.50 |
$-1.50 |
-0.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,100 |
0.635 |
$698.49 |
$-55.50 |
-7.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
591 |
0.850 |
$501.80 |
$36.23 |
+7.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.785 |
$392.86 |
$211.37 |
+116.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.988 |
$296.25 |
$10.35 |
+3.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
401 |
0.520 |
$208.27 |
$59.68 |
+40.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
210 |
0.976 |
$205.06 |
$0.21 |
+0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.985 |
$196.90 |
$0.10 |
+0.1% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.375 |
$187.50 |
$-16.74 |
-8.2% |
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
50,000 |
0.004 |
$175.00 |
$-167.70 |
-48.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
1,500 |
0.115 |
$172.49 |
$-621.81 |
-78.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
552 |
0.290 |
$160.13 |
$-65.28 |
-29.0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.095 |
$113.97 |
$-288.15 |
-71.7% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.435 |
$108.68 |
$-35.37 |
-24.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
100 |
0.969 |
$96.85 |
$2.35 |
+2.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
550 |
0.165 |
$90.75 |
$-51.75 |
-36.3% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? |
No |
92 |
0.815 |
$75.18 |
$1.65 |
+2.2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? |
Yes |
545 |
0.115 |
$62.71 |
$-83.21 |
-57.0% |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
12,000 |
0.004 |
$54.00 |
$-19.99 |
-27.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.110 |
$44.00 |
$-108.00 |
-71.1% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.022 |
$22.50 |
$-6.50 |
-22.4% |