PnL (30d)

+$300

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$1,008

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

70%

647W / 275L · 417 open

Win Return (30d)

67%

883W / 440L · 16 open

Trades (30d)

1,339

across 115 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

+$3.94

avg win $59 · loss $101

Profit Factor

1.11

$2,928 won / $2,628 lost

Reward / Risk

0.58

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$726

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	70.2% 647W/275L	115	$117,225
🏛 Politics	77.8% 56W/16L	12	$6,288
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/16L	2	$399

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	1,900	0.765	$1,453.23	$424.88	+41.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	1,000	0.957	$957.00	$4.00	+0.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	900	0.855	$769.50	$-1.50	-0.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	1,100	0.635	$698.49	$-55.50	-7.4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	591	0.850	$501.80	$36.23	+7.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	500	0.785	$392.86	$211.37	+116.5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	No	300	0.988	$296.40	$10.50	+3.7%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	No	401	0.525	$210.27	$61.69	+41.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	No	210	0.976	$205.06	$0.21	+0.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	No	200	0.983	$196.60	$-0.20	-0.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	500	0.375	$187.50	$-16.74	-8.2%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	50,000	0.004	$175.00	$-167.70	-48.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	1,500	0.115	$172.49	$-621.81	-78.3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	Yes	552	0.290	$160.13	$-65.28	-29.0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	1,200	0.095	$113.97	$-288.15	-71.7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	250	0.435	$108.68	$-35.37	-24.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	100	0.968	$96.80	$2.30	+2.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	550	0.165	$90.75	$-51.75	-36.3%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	92	0.815	$75.18	$1.65	+2.2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	545	0.115	$62.71	$-83.21	-57.0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	12,000	0.004	$54.00	$-19.99	-27.0%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	400	0.115	$46.00	$-106.00	-69.7%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	1,000	0.022	$22.50	$-6.50	-22.4%