| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
55 |
0.705 |
$38.44 |
$8.50 |
+28.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
39 |
0.959 |
$37.24 |
$0.24 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
38 |
0.835 |
$32.00 |
$-2.00 |
-5.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.976 |
$30.36 |
$2.36 |
+8.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
38 |
0.785 |
$29.55 |
$11.55 |
+64.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
62 |
0.465 |
$28.84 |
$3.84 |
+15.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
37 |
0.765 |
$28.32 |
$8.81 |
+45.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
21 |
0.966 |
$19.95 |
$1.95 |
+10.9% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
38 |
0.455 |
$17.30 |
$-3.70 |
-17.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
19 |
0.895 |
$16.71 |
$2.71 |
+19.3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
16 |
0.930 |
$14.50 |
$2.50 |
+20.8% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
15 |
0.952 |
$14.48 |
$1.48 |
+11.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.535 |
$14.23 |
$-4.77 |
-25.1% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? |
No |
12 |
0.990 |
$12.02 |
$0.02 |
+0.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.690 |
$11.93 |
$4.93 |
+70.4% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
12 |
0.980 |
$11.49 |
$3.49 |
+43.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.890 |
$10.21 |
$3.21 |
+45.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.940 |
$9.40 |
$2.40 |
+34.3% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
8 |
0.949 |
$7.64 |
$0.64 |
+9.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? |
No |
8 |
0.920 |
$7.49 |
$0.49 |
+7.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
8 |
0.945 |
$7.35 |
$0.35 |
+5.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? |
Yes |
11 |
0.665 |
$7.05 |
$0.05 |
+0.7% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
8 |
0.855 |
$7.04 |
$0.04 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
7 |
0.969 |
$6.99 |
$-0.01 |
-0.2% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher? |
No |
7 |
0.982 |
$6.95 |
$-0.05 |
-0.7% |