| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
55 |
0.710 |
$38.71 |
$8.77 |
+29.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
39 |
0.958 |
$37.20 |
$0.20 |
+0.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
62 |
0.540 |
$33.52 |
$8.52 |
+34.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
38 |
0.835 |
$32.00 |
$-2.00 |
-5.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.975 |
$30.33 |
$2.33 |
+8.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
38 |
0.785 |
$29.55 |
$11.55 |
+64.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
37 |
0.770 |
$28.50 |
$9.00 |
+46.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
21 |
0.968 |
$19.99 |
$1.99 |
+11.0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
38 |
0.475 |
$18.06 |
$-2.94 |
-14.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
19 |
0.935 |
$17.45 |
$3.45 |
+24.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
16 |
0.930 |
$14.50 |
$2.50 |
+20.8% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
15 |
0.953 |
$14.49 |
$1.49 |
+11.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.745 |
$12.88 |
$5.88 |
+84.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.460 |
$12.22 |
$-6.78 |
-35.7% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? |
No |
12 |
0.990 |
$12.02 |
$0.02 |
+0.2% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
12 |
0.988 |
$11.58 |
$3.58 |
+44.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.885 |
$10.16 |
$3.16 |
+45.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.945 |
$9.45 |
$2.45 |
+35.0% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
8 |
0.954 |
$7.67 |
$0.67 |
+9.6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? |
No |
8 |
0.920 |
$7.49 |
$0.49 |
+7.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
8 |
0.955 |
$7.43 |
$0.43 |
+6.1% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
8 |
0.855 |
$7.04 |
$0.04 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
7 |
0.965 |
$6.96 |
$-0.04 |
-0.6% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher? |
No |
7 |
0.958 |
$6.78 |
$-0.22 |
-3.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? |
Yes |
11 |
0.635 |
$6.73 |
$-0.27 |
-3.9% |