| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
55 |
0.715 |
$38.98 |
$9.04 |
+30.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
39 |
0.960 |
$37.28 |
$0.28 |
+0.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
38 |
0.835 |
$32.00 |
$-2.00 |
-5.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
62 |
0.510 |
$31.63 |
$6.63 |
+26.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
31 |
0.976 |
$30.38 |
$2.38 |
+8.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
38 |
0.780 |
$29.36 |
$11.36 |
+63.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
37 |
0.765 |
$28.32 |
$8.81 |
+45.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
21 |
0.969 |
$20.02 |
$2.02 |
+11.2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
38 |
0.465 |
$17.68 |
$-3.32 |
-15.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
19 |
0.925 |
$17.27 |
$3.27 |
+23.3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
16 |
0.930 |
$14.50 |
$2.50 |
+20.8% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
15 |
0.951 |
$14.46 |
$1.46 |
+11.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.490 |
$13.03 |
$-5.97 |
-31.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.725 |
$12.54 |
$5.53 |
+79.0% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? |
No |
12 |
0.990 |
$12.02 |
$0.02 |
+0.2% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
12 |
0.987 |
$11.57 |
$3.57 |
+44.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.890 |
$10.21 |
$3.21 |
+45.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
10 |
0.945 |
$9.45 |
$2.45 |
+35.0% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
8 |
0.967 |
$7.78 |
$0.78 |
+11.1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? |
No |
8 |
0.930 |
$7.57 |
$0.57 |
+8.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
8 |
0.935 |
$7.27 |
$0.27 |
+3.9% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
8 |
0.855 |
$7.04 |
$0.04 |
+0.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
7 |
0.968 |
$6.98 |
$-0.02 |
-0.3% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher? |
No |
7 |
0.984 |
$6.97 |
$-0.03 |
-0.4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? |
Yes |
11 |
0.650 |
$6.89 |
$-0.11 |
-1.6% |