PnL (30d)

−$96

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$22

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

75%

15W / 5L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

68%

19W / 9L

Trades (30d)

28

across 13 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$13.71

avg win $7 · loss $138

Profit Factor

0.30

$42 won / $138 lost

Reward / Risk

0.05

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	65.9% 324W/168L	124	$64,571
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/15L	14	$8,216
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/15L	8	$5,872
🤖 Tech	—	4	$1,908
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	4	$1,356
🎬 Culture	—	2	$500
⚽ Sports	—	1	$250

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

39 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	1,465	0.785	$1,150.09	$650.09	+130.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	1,360	0.835	$1,135.36	$179.02	+18.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	No	935	0.985	$920.50	$20.51	+2.3%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	951	0.855	$813.15	$63.15	+8.4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	917	0.710	$650.73	$-32.47	-4.8%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	643	0.915	$588.26	$12.38	+2.1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	592	0.850	$503.20	$73.20	+17.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	No	528	0.938	$495.10	$-4.90	-1.0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	556	0.835	$464.52	$118.82	+34.4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	659	0.615	$405.50	$45.50	+12.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	656	0.615	$403.28	$3.28	+0.8%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $40B by December 31?	No	379	0.875	$331.62	$1.62	+0.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	390	0.840	$327.85	$208.54	+174.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	312	0.968	$302.23	$2.23	+0.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	395	0.765	$301.97	$1.97	+0.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of August 3 2026?	No	302	0.993	$299.69	$-0.31	-0.1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	317	0.935	$296.84	$65.93	+28.6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	302	0.981	$296.51	$21.52	+7.8%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	No	287	0.925	$265.80	$15.80	+6.3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	345	0.770	$265.52	$165.52	+165.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	742	0.345	$256.08	$56.08	+28.0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	278	0.895	$248.61	$-1.39	-0.6%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	364	0.680	$247.42	$-2.58	-1.0%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	294	0.820	$241.18	$-8.82	-3.5%
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $60B by December 31?	No	221	0.951	$209.70	$9.70	+4.9%