| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
Yes |
15,194 |
0.610 |
$9,268.24 |
$2,273.76 |
+32.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
7,861 |
0.615 |
$4,834.81 |
$254.62 |
+5.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
6,413 |
0.543 |
$3,482.07 |
$-729.09 |
-17.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
Yes |
4,259 |
0.725 |
$3,087.85 |
$-64.06 |
-2.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
2,425 |
0.945 |
$2,292.07 |
$187.47 |
+8.9% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
15,373 |
0.115 |
$1,767.92 |
$-578.71 |
-24.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,350 |
0.999 |
$1,347.98 |
$44.08 |
+3.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
900 |
0.988 |
$888.74 |
$43.65 |
+5.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.765 |
$764.97 |
$85.00 |
+12.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
2,070 |
0.315 |
$652.20 |
$-339.40 |
-34.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
640 |
0.999 |
$639.04 |
$26.88 |
+4.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
603 |
0.890 |
$536.32 |
$64.29 |
+13.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
600 |
0.890 |
$534.00 |
$66.00 |
+14.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,197 |
0.225 |
$494.42 |
$-72.61 |
-12.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
300 |
0.945 |
$283.51 |
$19.50 |
+7.4% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
801 |
0.238 |
$191.02 |
$76.51 |
+66.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
260 |
0.710 |
$184.60 |
$-13.00 |
-6.6% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
569 |
0.277 |
$157.41 |
$2.23 |
+1.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
697 |
0.220 |
$153.40 |
$40.21 |
+35.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
298 |
0.470 |
$139.82 |
$-1.77 |
-1.3% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? |
Yes |
411 |
0.275 |
$112.92 |
$-10.27 |
-8.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
295 |
0.295 |
$87.02 |
$-101.78 |
-53.9% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
216 |
0.395 |
$85.22 |
$18.34 |
+27.4% |
| Israel military action against Yemen by August 31? |
No |
57 |
0.940 |
$53.31 |
$10.02 |
+23.2% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? |
No |
33 |
0.940 |
$30.67 |
$0.65 |
+2.2% |