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Trader leaderboard/0xbF4d202382

0xbF4d202382

0xbf4d202382ba5702721a8c43126f5f08163733ed
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$263
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$324
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-1.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
21%
12W / 44L · 100 open
Win Return (30d)
8%
12W / 144L
Trades (30d)
156
across 8 markets · ~20 per market
EV / position
−$37.56
avg win $60 · loss $168
Profit Factor
0.48
$242 won / $505 lost
Reward / Risk
0.36
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $310,819 · all-time $6,712,298

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 71.7% 1,841W/725L 134 $721,970
🏛 Politics 84.6% 22W/4L 6 $32,498
💵 Economy 62.5% 5W/3L 3 $31,663

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Yes 15,194 0.610 $9,268.24 $2,273.76 +32.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 7,861 0.615 $4,834.81 $254.62 +5.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 6,413 0.543 $3,482.07 $-729.09 -17.3%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Yes 4,259 0.725 $3,087.85 $-64.06 -2.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 2,425 0.945 $2,292.07 $187.47 +8.9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? Yes 15,373 0.115 $1,767.92 $-578.71 -24.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 1,350 0.999 $1,347.98 $44.08 +3.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? No 900 0.988 $888.74 $43.65 +5.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 1,000 0.765 $764.97 $85.00 +12.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? No 2,070 0.315 $652.20 $-339.40 -34.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? Yes 640 0.999 $639.04 $26.88 +4.4%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 603 0.890 $536.32 $64.29 +13.6%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? No 600 0.890 $534.00 $66.00 +14.1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? Yes 2,197 0.225 $494.42 $-72.61 -12.8%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? No 300 0.945 $283.51 $19.50 +7.4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 801 0.238 $191.02 $76.51 +66.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 260 0.710 $184.60 $-13.00 -6.6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? Yes 569 0.277 $157.41 $2.23 +1.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No 697 0.220 $153.40 $40.21 +35.5%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Yes 298 0.470 $139.82 $-1.77 -1.3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? Yes 411 0.275 $112.92 $-10.27 -8.3%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 295 0.295 $87.02 $-101.78 -53.9%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 216 0.395 $85.22 $18.34 +27.4%
Israel military action against Yemen by August 31? No 57 0.940 $53.31 $10.02 +23.2%
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? No 33 0.940 $30.67 $0.65 +2.2%