PnL (30d)

+$13,989

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,646

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+3.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

72%

1,841W / 725L · 1,793 open

Win Return (30d)

56%

2,444W / 1,906L · 9 open

Trades (30d)

4,359

across 134 markets · ~33 per market

EV / position

+$164.57

avg win $400 · loss $434

Profit Factor

2.34

$24,394 won / $10,406 lost

Reward / Risk

0.92

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$4,494

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	71.7% 1,841W/725L	134	$721,970
🏛 Politics	84.6% 22W/4L	6	$32,498
💵 Economy	62.5% 5W/3L	3	$31,663

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

38 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	14,885	0.685	$10,196.46	$3,393.26	+49.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	7,861	0.625	$4,913.43	$333.23	+7.3%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	4,754	0.735	$3,493.94	$-29.17	-0.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	6,695	0.481	$3,220.47	$-1,348.53	-29.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	2,425	0.955	$2,316.32	$211.73	+10.1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	15,373	0.115	$1,767.92	$-578.71	-24.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	1,350	0.999	$1,347.98	$44.08	+3.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	No	900	0.986	$886.94	$41.85	+5.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	1,000	0.770	$769.97	$90.00	+13.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	640	0.999	$639.04	$26.88	+4.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	2,080	0.275	$572.13	$-424.26	-42.6%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	603	0.885	$533.31	$61.28	+13.0%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	600	0.885	$531.00	$63.00	+13.5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	2,197	0.225	$494.42	$-72.61	-12.8%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	300	0.945	$283.51	$19.50	+7.4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	801	0.265	$212.25	$97.74	+85.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	260	0.680	$176.80	$-20.80	-10.5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	569	0.277	$157.41	$2.23	+1.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	298	0.460	$136.85	$-4.75	-3.4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	411	0.275	$112.92	$-10.27	-8.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	697	0.160	$111.56	$-1.62	-1.4%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	295	0.290	$85.55	$-103.25	-54.7%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	216	0.395	$85.22	$18.34	+27.4%
Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?	No	57	0.945	$53.59	$10.30	+23.8%
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?	No	33	0.940	$30.67	$0.65	+2.2%