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Trader

0xbc29b9e3a4c89d55c8a0629008ccaece830eb3b6
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$4
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-2.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
28%
34W / 87L
Win Return (30d)
28%
34W / 87L
Trades (30d)
121
across 45 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$0.10
avg win $4 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.93
$57 won / $62 lost
Reward / Risk
1.85
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $3,021 · all-time $57,794

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.2% 550W/504L 310 $5,338
🏛 Politics 58.1% 36W/26L 40 $1,057
🎬 Culture 77.1% 27W/8L 20 $352
🌤 Weather 20.0% 1W/4L 4 $8

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 93 0.992 $92.17 $15.66 +20.5%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? No 70 1.000 $70.32 $10.88 +18.3%
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary? Yes 70 0.830 $58.00 $13.06 +29.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 40 0.968 $38.30 $-0.34 -0.9%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82 0.445 $36.38 $5.31 +17.1%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 35 0.963 $33.36 $-0.24 -0.7%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Yes 34 0.966 $33.03 $6.92 +26.5%
Will Trump say "No No No" in August? Yes 30 0.895 $27.10 $0.90 +3.5%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No 37 0.715 $26.38 $13.47 +104.3%
Will Trump say "Through the Roof" in August? Yes 26 0.967 $25.47 $1.53 +6.4%
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 30 0.839 $25.17 $-2.08 -7.6%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 16 0.993 $16.04 $1.04 +6.9%
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in August? Yes 27 0.550 $14.72 $1.57 +12.0%
Will Trump say "American Dream" in August? Yes 15 0.960 $14.40 $2.10 +17.1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in August? Yes 20 0.675 $13.50 $-0.50 -3.6%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 13 0.958 $12.19 $-0.12 -1.0%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 10 0.971 $9.87 $3.71 +60.3%
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? Yes 51 0.180 $9.15 $-3.05 -25.0%
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No 10 0.795 $7.95 $0.00 +0.0%
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee? Yes 14 0.405 $5.55 $-2.67 -32.5%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? No 5 1.000 $5.00 $0.49 +10.9%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 5 0.993 $4.96 $-0.02 -0.4%
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 5 0.989 $4.95 $0.41 +8.9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 25 0.200 $4.92 $0.90 +22.4%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? No 5 0.965 $4.82 $0.62 +14.8%