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Trader

0xbc29b9e3a4c89d55c8a0629008ccaece830eb3b6
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$5
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$38
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
57%
63W / 47L · 106 open
Win Return (30d)
51%
109W / 104L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
216
across 60 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$0.17
avg win $4 · loss $5
Profit Factor
0.93
$67 won / $72 lost
Reward / Risk
0.77
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$12
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $3,414 · all-time $58,188

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.2% 550W/504L 311 $5,397
🏛 Politics 58.1% 36W/26L 41 $1,060
🎬 Culture 77.1% 27W/8L 21 $356
🌤 Weather 20.0% 1W/4L 4 $8

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 93 1.000 $92.91 $16.40 +21.4%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? No 70 1.000 $70.32 $10.88 +18.3%
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary? Yes 70 0.875 $61.18 $16.24 +36.2%
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? Yes 212 0.255 $53.96 $7.76 +16.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 40 0.977 $38.68 $0.04 +0.1%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Yes 34 1.000 $34.19 $8.09 +31.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 35 0.962 $33.32 $-0.28 -0.8%
Will Trump say "No No No" in August? Yes 30 0.895 $27.10 $0.90 +3.5%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No 37 0.715 $26.38 $13.47 +104.3%
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 30 0.855 $25.65 $-1.60 -5.9%
Will Trump say "Through the Roof" in August? Yes 26 0.928 $24.46 $0.51 +2.1%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 16 1.000 $16.15 $1.15 +7.7%
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in August? Yes 27 0.550 $14.72 $1.57 +12.0%
Will Trump say "American Dream" in August? Yes 15 0.925 $13.88 $1.57 +12.8%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in August? Yes 20 0.675 $13.50 $-0.50 -3.6%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 13 0.946 $12.04 $-0.27 -2.2%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 10 0.993 $10.08 $3.93 +63.8%
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No 10 0.795 $7.95 $0.00 +0.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 25 0.236 $5.84 $1.81 +45.1%
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee? Yes 14 0.400 $5.48 $-2.74 -33.3%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? No 5 1.000 $5.00 $0.80 +19.0%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? No 5 1.000 $5.00 $0.49 +10.9%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 5 0.998 $4.99 $0.00 +0.1%
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 5 0.992 $4.96 $0.42 +9.2%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 5 0.847 $3.87 $-0.29 -6.9%