| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
12,289 |
0.805 |
$9,893.02 |
$3,161.68 |
+47.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
8,603 |
0.895 |
$7,700.00 |
$2,581.69 |
+50.4% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
6,682 |
0.996 |
$6,655.52 |
$1,245.36 |
+23.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
18,115 |
0.364 |
$6,602.95 |
$-459.72 |
-6.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6,777 |
0.875 |
$5,929.48 |
$335.78 |
+6.0% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
9,622 |
0.604 |
$5,806.73 |
$-54.27 |
-0.9% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
5,851 |
0.987 |
$5,771.93 |
$316.68 |
+5.8% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
7,216 |
0.710 |
$5,123.14 |
$849.45 |
+19.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
8,096 |
0.625 |
$5,059.91 |
$1,703.08 |
+50.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
4,792 |
0.976 |
$4,674.48 |
$863.67 |
+22.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,253 |
0.987 |
$4,195.68 |
$334.03 |
+8.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,371 |
0.645 |
$4,109.02 |
$34.03 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
4,586 |
0.895 |
$4,104.46 |
$829.87 |
+25.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,973 |
0.795 |
$3,953.82 |
$1,065.41 |
+36.9% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
Yes |
4,985 |
0.785 |
$3,912.93 |
$-154.50 |
-3.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,833 |
0.930 |
$3,564.87 |
$819.88 |
+29.9% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
5,022 |
0.685 |
$3,440.18 |
$-175.54 |
-4.9% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.675 |
$3,037.48 |
$302.54 |
+11.1% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
3,496 |
0.855 |
$2,988.81 |
$115.14 |
+4.0% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
3,178 |
0.940 |
$2,987.67 |
$834.85 |
+38.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
4,083 |
0.730 |
$2,980.62 |
$-115.36 |
-3.7% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
3,038 |
0.979 |
$2,973.10 |
$357.11 |
+13.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
17,064 |
0.165 |
$2,815.51 |
$515.56 |
+22.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
3,369 |
0.795 |
$2,678.57 |
$678.58 |
+33.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,423 |
1.000 |
$2,422.19 |
$371.57 |
+18.1% |