| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
12,289 |
0.785 |
$9,647.23 |
$2,915.89 |
+43.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
18,068 |
0.483 |
$8,735.77 |
$1,696.11 |
+24.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
8,603 |
0.890 |
$7,656.98 |
$2,538.67 |
+49.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
6,682 |
0.997 |
$6,658.86 |
$1,248.71 |
+23.1% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
9,622 |
0.605 |
$5,816.36 |
$-44.64 |
-0.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6,777 |
0.855 |
$5,793.95 |
$200.25 |
+3.6% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
5,851 |
0.987 |
$5,774.86 |
$319.61 |
+5.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
8,096 |
0.705 |
$5,707.58 |
$2,350.75 |
+70.0% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
7,216 |
0.715 |
$5,159.22 |
$885.52 |
+20.7% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
4,792 |
0.976 |
$4,676.87 |
$866.06 |
+22.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,253 |
0.987 |
$4,195.68 |
$334.03 |
+8.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,371 |
0.655 |
$4,172.73 |
$97.74 |
+2.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
4,586 |
0.885 |
$4,058.60 |
$784.01 |
+23.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,973 |
0.785 |
$3,904.09 |
$1,015.68 |
+35.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,833 |
0.945 |
$3,622.36 |
$877.38 |
+32.0% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
Yes |
3,985 |
0.865 |
$3,446.70 |
$229.27 |
+7.1% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
5,022 |
0.680 |
$3,415.06 |
$-200.66 |
-5.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.675 |
$3,037.48 |
$302.54 |
+11.1% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
3,496 |
0.855 |
$2,988.81 |
$115.14 |
+4.0% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
3,178 |
0.940 |
$2,987.67 |
$834.85 |
+38.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
4,083 |
0.724 |
$2,954.08 |
$-141.90 |
-4.6% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
3,038 |
0.942 |
$2,860.68 |
$244.68 |
+9.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
17,064 |
0.165 |
$2,815.51 |
$515.56 |
+22.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
3,369 |
0.765 |
$2,577.49 |
$577.50 |
+28.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,423 |
1.000 |
$2,422.19 |
$371.57 |
+18.1% |