| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
12,289 |
0.785 |
$9,647.23 |
$2,915.89 |
+43.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
18,144 |
0.465 |
$8,427.90 |
$1,353.94 |
+19.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
8,603 |
0.885 |
$7,613.97 |
$2,495.65 |
+48.8% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
6,682 |
0.992 |
$6,625.45 |
$1,215.29 |
+22.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6,777 |
0.865 |
$5,861.72 |
$268.01 |
+4.8% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
9,622 |
0.603 |
$5,801.92 |
$-59.08 |
-1.0% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
5,851 |
0.987 |
$5,774.86 |
$319.61 |
+5.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
8,096 |
0.685 |
$5,545.67 |
$2,188.83 |
+65.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
7,216 |
0.705 |
$5,087.06 |
$813.37 |
+19.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
4,792 |
0.976 |
$4,676.87 |
$866.06 |
+22.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,253 |
0.987 |
$4,195.68 |
$334.03 |
+8.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
4,586 |
0.900 |
$4,127.39 |
$852.80 |
+26.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,371 |
0.645 |
$4,109.02 |
$34.03 |
+0.8% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? |
Yes |
4,985 |
0.790 |
$3,937.86 |
$-129.58 |
-3.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,973 |
0.780 |
$3,879.22 |
$990.81 |
+34.3% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,833 |
0.940 |
$3,603.20 |
$858.21 |
+31.3% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
5,022 |
0.675 |
$3,389.95 |
$-225.77 |
-6.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
4,500 |
0.675 |
$3,037.48 |
$302.54 |
+11.1% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
Yes |
3,496 |
0.855 |
$2,988.81 |
$115.14 |
+4.0% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
3,178 |
0.940 |
$2,987.67 |
$834.85 |
+38.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
4,083 |
0.723 |
$2,952.04 |
$-143.94 |
-4.6% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
3,038 |
0.951 |
$2,888.02 |
$272.03 |
+10.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
17,064 |
0.165 |
$2,815.51 |
$515.56 |
+22.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
3,369 |
0.785 |
$2,644.88 |
$644.88 |
+32.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,423 |
1.000 |
$2,422.19 |
$371.57 |
+18.1% |