PnL (30d)

−$31

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$16

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-13.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

33%

2W / 4L · 44 open

Win Return (30d)

88%

44W / 6L

Trades (30d)

50

across 8 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$7.81

avg win $1 · loss $11

Profit Factor

0.03

$1 won / $32 lost

Reward / Risk

0.08

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$31

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.8% 7W/6L	18	$500
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	6	$188
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$10

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

27 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	210	0.855	$179.89	$17.98	+11.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	50	0.955	$47.75	$1.60	+3.5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	50	0.945	$47.25	$4.35	+10.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	70	0.590	$41.30	$-21.35	-34.1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	40	0.962	$38.46	$2.11	+5.8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	30	0.945	$28.35	$2.85	+11.2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	36	0.650	$23.40	$-2.42	-9.4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	20	0.963	$19.25	$0.71	+3.8%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	19	0.968	$17.91	$1.91	+12.0%
Trump goes to space in 2026?	No	15	0.984	$14.75	$0.48	+3.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	15	0.925	$13.88	$1.42	+11.4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	100	0.117	$11.65	$-0.05	-0.4%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	40	0.265	$10.60	$1.80	+20.5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	11	0.935	$10.04	$4.04	+67.2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	10	0.915	$9.15	$1.65	+22.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	45	0.165	$7.42	$1.12	+17.9%
NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	6	0.976	$5.86	$0.22	+3.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	Yes	40	0.115	$4.60	$-0.20	-4.2%
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	4	0.952	$4.14	$0.14	+3.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	Yes	70	0.045	$3.15	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	345	0.009	$2.93	$0.17	+6.2%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	No	2	0.977	$2.04	$0.05	+2.4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	60	0.022	$1.35	$-0.11	-7.5%
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	7	0.105	$0.73	$-0.53	-41.7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	3	0.255	$0.67	$-0.33	-32.9%