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Trader leaderboard/Mr.Frog🐸

Mr.Frog🐸

0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$412
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$570
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+20.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
76%
16W / 5L · 33 open
Win Return (30d)
78%
42W / 12L
Trades (30d)
54
across 14 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$82.34
avg win $229 · loss $16
Profit Factor
9.73
$459 won / $47 lost
Reward / Risk
14.60
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $11,841 · all-time $3,772,350

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 39.1% 171W/266L 148 $25,894
🏛 Politics 33.3% 1W/2L 6 $156
🤖 Tech 3 $605
🎬 Culture 50.0% 1W/1L 3 $92
💵 Economy 3 $340
₿ Crypto 1 $64

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

37 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 1,868 0.335 $625.64 $346.96 +124.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 4,520 0.125 $565.00 $54.77 +10.7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 1,546 0.345 $533.13 $179.07 +50.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 2,701 0.112 $302.47 $157.48 +108.6%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? No 2,091 0.111 $231.03 $-94.31 -29.0%
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No 330 0.595 $196.35 $-14.85 -7.0%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 750 0.255 $191.25 $49.75 +35.2%
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch Yes 150 0.845 $126.75 $34.14 +36.9%
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 800 0.145 $116.00 $44.00 +61.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 213 0.475 $101.17 $-28.44 -21.9%
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 Anthropic 148 0.635 $93.98 $-15.66 -14.3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No 964 0.080 $76.62 $1.33 +1.8%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No 177 0.400 $70.80 $12.39 +21.2%
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? No 300 0.225 $67.50 $-3.50 -4.9%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No 300 0.223 $66.75 $5.02 +8.1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 1,505 0.043 $65.32 $-0.28 -0.4%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 527 0.078 $41.13 $-28.87 -41.2%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? No 497 0.082 $40.51 $-8.72 -17.7%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 205 0.195 $39.98 $19.48 +95.0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? Yes 100 0.365 $36.50 $-0.50 -1.4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 500 0.070 $34.75 $-0.25 -0.7%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? No 2,522 0.013 $34.05 $-144.95 -81.0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 42 0.785 $32.97 $13.31 +67.7%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 1,000 0.022 $22.00 $-5.98 -21.4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31? No 85 0.175 $14.95 $4.70 +45.8%