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Trader leaderboard/Mr.Frog🐸

Mr.Frog🐸

0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$6
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$23
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
24%
11W / 34L · 17 open
Win Return (30d)
32%
20W / 42L
Trades (30d)
62
across 15 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$0.43
avg win $205 · loss $62
Profit Factor
0.99
$614 won / $619 lost
Reward / Risk
3.30
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$15
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $12,721 · all-time $3,773,230

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 39.2% 173W/268L 151 $26,508
🏛 Politics 33.3% 1W/2L 6 $156
🤖 Tech 4 $667
💵 Economy 4 $508
🎬 Culture 50.0% 1W/1L 3 $92
₿ Crypto 2 $232

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

37 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 4,520 0.175 $791.00 $280.77 +55.0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 1,868 0.325 $606.97 $328.28 +117.8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 1,546 0.345 $533.13 $179.07 +50.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 2,701 0.111 $299.77 $154.78 +106.7%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? No 2,091 0.119 $248.80 $-76.54 -23.5%
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No 330 0.605 $199.65 $-11.55 -5.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 750 0.265 $198.75 $57.25 +40.5%
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch Yes 150 0.948 $142.20 $49.59 +53.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No 580 0.217 $126.15 $0.65 +0.5%
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 800 0.145 $116.00 $44.00 +61.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No 213 0.505 $107.56 $-22.05 -17.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? No 500 0.200 $100.00 $10.00 +11.1%
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026 Anthropic 148 0.660 $97.68 $-11.96 -10.9%
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? No 400 0.240 $96.00 $-0.65 -0.7%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No 177 0.490 $86.73 $28.32 +48.5%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No 964 0.080 $76.62 $1.33 +1.8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 1,505 0.045 $68.48 $2.88 +4.4%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? No 527 0.077 $40.86 $-29.14 -41.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 205 0.195 $39.98 $19.48 +95.0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? Yes 100 0.365 $36.50 $-0.50 -1.4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 500 0.070 $34.75 $-0.25 -0.7%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? No 2,522 0.013 $34.05 $-144.95 -81.0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 42 0.785 $32.97 $13.31 +67.7%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? No 497 0.062 $30.81 $-18.41 -37.4%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 1,000 0.022 $22.00 $-5.98 -21.4%