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Trader leaderboard/The-Defect

The-Defect

0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$116
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$245
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+4.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
83%
50W / 10L · 66 open
Win Return (30d)
46%
58W / 68L
Trades (30d)
126
across 16 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
+$16.52
avg win $32 · loss $77
Profit Factor
2.50
$193 won / $77 lost
Reward / Risk
0.42
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$25
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $18,274 · all-time $907,656

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 75.6% 615W/199L 196 $49,822
🏛 Politics 82.0% 50W/11L 18 $2,416
🎬 Culture 47.3% 43W/48L 10 $2,873
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/1L 9 $1,193
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/1L 8 $1,022
🤖 Tech 3 $256
₿ Crypto 1 $33

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

91 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 1,433 0.881 $1,263.29 $25.95 +2.1%
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? No 1,012 0.925 $936.29 $57.00 +6.5%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 1,088 0.795 $865.03 $65.09 +8.1%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 874 0.480 $419.34 $-182.55 -30.3%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 445 0.910 $404.80 $40.03 +11.0%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 392 0.845 $331.40 $63.00 +23.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 351 0.825 $289.34 $-12.85 -4.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 279 0.977 $272.50 $2.68 +1.0%
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? No 271 0.958 $259.62 $21.14 +8.9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 221 0.957 $211.28 $6.20 +3.0%
Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 219 0.953 $208.37 $-3.11 -1.5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 254 0.725 $183.99 $6.24 +3.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes 205 0.895 $183.75 $9.76 +5.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 165 0.845 $139.53 $38.78 +38.5%
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? No 159 0.825 $131.17 $10.40 +8.6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 141 0.875 $122.98 $8.77 +7.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 172 0.615 $105.80 $2.58 +2.5%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 584 0.165 $96.36 $21.54 +28.8%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? No 90 0.925 $83.25 $2.75 +3.4%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No 134 0.595 $79.62 $-9.34 -10.5%
Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 79 0.980 $77.29 $5.93 +8.3%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 73 0.895 $65.55 $0.08 +0.1%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Yes 68 0.895 $60.41 $21.24 +54.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 104 0.573 $59.39 $1.73 +3.0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 92 0.640 $58.61 $5.04 +9.4%