Log in
Trader leaderboard/The-Defect

The-Defect

0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$143
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$48
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+4.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
72%
98W / 38L · 14 open
Win Return (30d)
72%
107W / 41L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
150
across 19 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
+$11.93
avg win $15 · loss $18
Profit Factor
8.85
$161 won / $18 lost
Reward / Risk
0.80
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$47
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $16,553 · all-time $905,936

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 75.6% 615W/199L 196 $49,822
🏛 Politics 82.0% 50W/11L 18 $2,416
🎬 Culture 47.3% 43W/48L 10 $2,873
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/1L 9 $1,193
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/1L 8 $1,022
🤖 Tech 3 $256
₿ Crypto 1 $33

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

95 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 1,404 0.889 $1,248.79 $37.34 +3.1%
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? No 1,012 0.925 $936.29 $57.00 +6.5%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 1,088 0.790 $859.59 $59.65 +7.5%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 874 0.485 $423.71 $-178.18 -29.6%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 445 0.910 $404.80 $40.03 +11.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Yes 432 0.855 $369.79 $3.26 +0.9%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 392 0.845 $331.40 $63.00 +23.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? No 351 0.835 $292.85 $-9.35 -3.1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? No 279 0.968 $269.99 $0.17 +0.1%
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? No 271 0.968 $262.33 $23.85 +10.0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 221 0.972 $214.48 $9.40 +4.6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 254 0.725 $183.99 $6.24 +3.5%
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? No 159 0.825 $131.17 $10.40 +8.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 165 0.785 $129.62 $28.87 +28.7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 153 0.835 $127.60 $4.96 +4.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 172 0.615 $105.80 $2.58 +2.5%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No 134 0.660 $88.32 $-0.64 -0.7%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? No 90 0.925 $83.25 $2.75 +3.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 81 0.966 $77.82 $9.05 +13.2%
Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 79 0.978 $77.13 $5.77 +8.1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 125 0.615 $77.02 $3.76 +5.1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 563 0.135 $76.01 $4.22 +5.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 84 0.855 $72.24 $6.34 +9.6%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 73 0.895 $65.55 $0.08 +0.1%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Yes 68 0.880 $59.40 $20.23 +51.6%