| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
400 |
0.790 |
$316.00 |
$-19.00 |
-5.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
800 |
0.385 |
$308.00 |
$-58.00 |
-15.8% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
300 |
0.978 |
$293.25 |
$23.25 |
+8.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.565 |
$282.24 |
$-58.64 |
-17.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
305 |
0.905 |
$276.02 |
$30.93 |
+12.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.920 |
$276.00 |
$15.00 |
+5.7% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
400 |
0.675 |
$269.99 |
$13.00 |
+5.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.825 |
$247.50 |
$-7.50 |
-2.9% |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.740 |
$222.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
270 |
0.815 |
$220.02 |
$11.42 |
+5.5% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.948 |
$189.60 |
$7.40 |
+4.1% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.145 |
$188.50 |
$-24.00 |
-11.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
200 |
0.865 |
$173.00 |
$95.00 |
+121.8% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
2,300 |
0.075 |
$172.50 |
$-12.49 |
-6.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.145 |
$145.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.3% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
200 |
0.725 |
$144.99 |
$43.00 |
+42.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
150 |
0.955 |
$143.25 |
$11.25 |
+8.5% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.135 |
$134.50 |
$7.50 |
+5.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.645 |
$129.00 |
$-2.00 |
-1.5% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.640 |
$128.00 |
$-4.00 |
-3.0% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
200 |
0.605 |
$121.00 |
$-11.00 |
-8.3% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of August 3 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.989 |
$98.85 |
$10.85 |
+12.3% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in August? |
No |
100 |
0.968 |
$96.80 |
$1.90 |
+2.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
100 |
0.955 |
$95.44 |
$13.45 |
+16.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
100 |
0.940 |
$94.00 |
$12.00 |
+14.6% |