| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
400 |
0.980 |
$392.00 |
$32.00 |
+8.9% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
400 |
0.790 |
$316.00 |
$-19.00 |
-5.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
300 |
0.999 |
$299.55 |
$12.05 |
+4.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
400 |
0.705 |
$281.99 |
$78.00 |
+38.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.930 |
$279.00 |
$18.00 |
+6.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
305 |
0.900 |
$274.50 |
$29.40 |
+12.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.895 |
$268.50 |
$42.50 |
+18.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.537 |
$268.49 |
$-72.39 |
-21.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
600 |
0.385 |
$231.00 |
$-61.00 |
-20.9% |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.740 |
$222.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.9% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.680 |
$203.99 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.949 |
$189.80 |
$7.60 |
+4.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
200 |
0.945 |
$189.00 |
$13.00 |
+7.4% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.140 |
$182.00 |
$-30.50 |
-14.4% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
2,300 |
0.075 |
$172.50 |
$-12.49 |
-6.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
200 |
0.825 |
$165.00 |
$87.00 |
+111.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.770 |
$154.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.145 |
$145.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.710 |
$142.00 |
$-12.00 |
-7.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.675 |
$135.00 |
$12.00 |
+9.8% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.135 |
$134.50 |
$7.50 |
+5.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.645 |
$129.00 |
$-2.00 |
-1.5% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.635 |
$127.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.8% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.625 |
$125.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.8% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
200 |
0.610 |
$122.00 |
$-10.00 |
-7.6% |