| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
400 |
0.987 |
$394.60 |
$34.60 |
+9.6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
400 |
0.790 |
$316.00 |
$-19.00 |
-5.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
300 |
0.999 |
$299.55 |
$12.05 |
+4.2% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
400 |
0.715 |
$285.99 |
$82.00 |
+40.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
305 |
0.925 |
$282.12 |
$37.03 |
+15.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
300 |
0.920 |
$276.00 |
$15.00 |
+5.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.890 |
$267.00 |
$41.00 |
+18.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.492 |
$246.24 |
$-94.64 |
-27.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
600 |
0.375 |
$225.00 |
$-67.00 |
-22.9% |
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.740 |
$222.00 |
$2.00 |
+0.9% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.680 |
$203.99 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.949 |
$189.80 |
$7.60 |
+4.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
200 |
0.940 |
$188.00 |
$12.00 |
+6.8% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.140 |
$182.00 |
$-30.50 |
-14.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
200 |
0.885 |
$177.00 |
$26.00 |
+17.2% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? |
Yes |
2,300 |
0.075 |
$172.50 |
$-12.49 |
-6.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
200 |
0.825 |
$165.00 |
$87.00 |
+111.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
200 |
0.765 |
$153.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.6% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.145 |
$145.00 |
$-5.00 |
-3.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.710 |
$142.00 |
$-12.00 |
-7.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
200 |
0.675 |
$135.00 |
$12.00 |
+9.8% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.135 |
$134.50 |
$7.50 |
+5.9% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.625 |
$125.00 |
$-1.00 |
-0.8% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? |
Yes |
200 |
0.600 |
$120.00 |
$-12.00 |
-9.1% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of August 3 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.994 |
$99.35 |
$11.35 |
+12.9% |