PnL (30d)

−$37

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$80

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

22%

12W / 42L · 167 open

Win Return (30d)

58%

121W / 86L · 14 open

Trades (30d)

221

across 19 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

−$9.16

avg win $15 · loss $33

Profit Factor

0.45

$30 won / $67 lost

Reward / Risk

0.45

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$36

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.1% 748W/661L	154	$97,410
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	8	$1,937
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/4L	6	$1,192

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	400	0.645	$258.00	$-74.00	-22.3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	168	0.925	$155.28	$7.47	+5.1%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	200	0.705	$141.00	$5.00	+3.7%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	200	0.375	$75.00	$-1.00	-1.3%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	200	0.285	$56.98	$-7.02	-11.0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	200	0.269	$53.80	$-3.20	-5.6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	54	0.883	$47.73	$-0.08	-0.2%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	196	0.233	$45.68	$-21.17	-31.7%
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	No	200	0.145	$29.00	$-27.00	-48.2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	200	0.114	$22.70	$-13.50	-37.3%