| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
10,400 |
0.935 |
$9,724.00 |
$4,524.00 |
+87.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
4,925 |
0.988 |
$4,865.90 |
$216.70 |
+4.7% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,928 |
0.970 |
$4,779.99 |
$798.03 |
+20.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
4,836 |
0.853 |
$4,122.82 |
$720.49 |
+21.2% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
4,186 |
0.823 |
$3,442.71 |
$349.50 |
+11.3% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
2,700 |
1.000 |
$2,698.65 |
$137.95 |
+5.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
2,200 |
0.845 |
$1,859.00 |
$313.00 |
+20.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? |
Yes |
1,622 |
0.991 |
$1,607.41 |
$160.63 |
+11.1% |
| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000? |
No |
1,397 |
0.932 |
$1,302.43 |
$26.34 |
+2.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%? |
No |
1,105 |
0.848 |
$937.36 |
$-4.13 |
-0.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.905 |
$905.00 |
$85.00 |
+10.4% |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
866 |
0.996 |
$862.49 |
$126.43 |
+17.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,191 |
0.675 |
$803.93 |
$136.97 |
+20.5% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
850 |
0.935 |
$794.75 |
$29.75 |
+3.9% |
| Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
821 |
0.920 |
$755.41 |
$29.03 |
+4.0% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
10,400 |
0.065 |
$676.00 |
$-4,524.00 |
-87.0% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
741 |
0.798 |
$591.47 |
$43.16 |
+7.9% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
1,307 |
0.411 |
$537.69 |
$-101.42 |
-15.9% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
542 |
0.855 |
$463.51 |
$73.19 |
+18.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
280 |
0.825 |
$231.00 |
$1.40 |
+0.6% |
| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000? |
Yes |
304 |
0.705 |
$214.32 |
$7.60 |
+3.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
247 |
0.795 |
$196.60 |
$74.31 |
+60.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
450 |
0.400 |
$179.78 |
$-47.47 |
-20.9% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
330 |
0.325 |
$107.25 |
$4.95 |
+4.8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
10 |
0.465 |
$4.65 |
$-1.35 |
-22.5% |