| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
14,400 |
0.935 |
$13,464.00 |
$6,264.00 |
+87.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
4,925 |
0.988 |
$4,865.90 |
$216.70 |
+4.7% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,928 |
0.974 |
$4,799.70 |
$817.74 |
+20.5% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
4,836 |
0.850 |
$4,110.73 |
$708.39 |
+20.8% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
4,186 |
0.822 |
$3,438.53 |
$345.32 |
+11.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
2,200 |
0.855 |
$1,881.00 |
$335.00 |
+21.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? |
Yes |
1,622 |
0.991 |
$1,607.41 |
$160.63 |
+11.1% |
| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000? |
No |
1,397 |
0.933 |
$1,303.83 |
$27.74 |
+2.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%? |
No |
1,105 |
0.848 |
$937.36 |
$-4.13 |
-0.4% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
Yes |
14,400 |
0.065 |
$936.00 |
$-6,264.00 |
-87.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.910 |
$910.00 |
$90.00 |
+11.0% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
850 |
0.930 |
$790.50 |
$25.50 |
+3.3% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
1,191 |
0.650 |
$774.16 |
$107.19 |
+16.1% |
| Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
821 |
0.925 |
$759.52 |
$33.14 |
+4.6% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
741 |
0.800 |
$593.32 |
$45.01 |
+8.2% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
1,307 |
0.410 |
$536.38 |
$-102.73 |
-16.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
542 |
0.845 |
$458.09 |
$67.77 |
+17.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
280 |
0.835 |
$233.80 |
$4.20 |
+1.8% |
| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000? |
Yes |
304 |
0.705 |
$214.32 |
$7.60 |
+3.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
247 |
0.845 |
$208.96 |
$86.68 |
+70.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
450 |
0.441 |
$198.45 |
$-28.80 |
-12.7% |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
330 |
0.325 |
$107.25 |
$4.95 |
+4.8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
10 |
0.455 |
$4.55 |
$-1.45 |
-24.2% |