PnL (30d)

+$464

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$11

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+62.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

33%

20W / 41L · 15 open

Win Return (30d)

37%

28W / 48L

Trades (30d)

76

across 29 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

+$25.76

avg win $88 · loss $24

Profit Factor

2.95

$701 won / $237 lost

Reward / Risk

3.69

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$38

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	32.8% 20W/41L	29	$934
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	6	$175
₿ Crypto	100.0% 1W/0L	6	$181
⚽ Sports	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$63

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

30 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US recession by end of 2026?	No	256	0.920	$235.79	$43.57	+22.7%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	128	0.570	$73.05	$47.10	+181.5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?	Yes	120	0.205	$24.60	$6.20	+33.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	No	50	0.440	$22.00	$-4.00	-15.4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	100	0.195	$19.50	$-20.50	-51.2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	100	0.165	$16.50	$-16.50	-50.0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	60	0.255	$15.30	$-0.90	-5.6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	100	0.114	$11.35	$-18.95	-62.5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	291	0.037	$10.91	$-21.09	-65.9%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	50	0.180	$9.00	$-1.00	-10.0%
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?	Yes	40	0.220	$8.80	$-2.40	-21.4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in August?	Yes	10	0.870	$8.70	$6.70	+335.0%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	60	0.125	$7.50	$-2.70	-26.5%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	130	0.045	$5.84	$-11.04	-65.4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	200	0.026	$5.20	$-6.80	-56.7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	Yes	60	0.070	$4.20	$-0.60	-12.5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	100	0.040	$3.95	$-2.65	-40.2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.038	$3.85	$-5.15	-57.2%
UK Recession in 2026?	Yes	30	0.120	$3.60	$-7.80	-68.4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	Yes	40	0.088	$3.54	$1.34	+60.9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	50	0.065	$3.26	$-20.80	-86.5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in August?	Yes	100	0.032	$3.20	$0.30	+10.3%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	88	0.033	$2.86	$-8.23	-74.2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	30	0.095	$2.85	$-8.85	-75.6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	Yes	60	0.045	$2.70	$-0.50	-15.6%